Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.004203 0.004421 0.004645 0.004893 0.005159 0.005437 0.005750
2025-09-07 0.003778 0.004096 0.004436 0.004828 0.005270 0.005756 0.006331
2025-09-14 0.003501 0.003870 0.004276 0.004759 0.005322 0.005960 0.006746
2025-09-21 0.003332 0.003742 0.004204 0.004767 0.005440 0.006226 0.007226
2025-09-28 0.003106 0.003530 0.004015 0.004618 0.005354 0.006235 0.007385
2025-10-05 0.002989 0.003436 0.003957 0.004615 0.005436 0.006440 0.007786
2025-10-12 0.002928 0.003404 0.003967 0.004691 0.005613 0.006767 0.008356
2025-10-19 0.002820 0.003308 0.003892 0.004655 0.005643 0.006904 0.008680
2025-10-26 0.002727 0.003225 0.003829 0.004629 0.005681 0.007048 0.009017
2025-11-02 0.002639 0.003145 0.003764 0.004595 0.005704 0.007171 0.009327
2025-11-09 0.002607 0.003132 0.003784 0.004670 0.005873 0.007495 0.009937
2025-11-16 0.002537 0.003069 0.003735 0.004651 0.005912 0.007640 0.010294
2025-11-23 0.002464 0.003000 0.003677 0.004619 0.005933 0.007763 0.010628
2025-11-30 0.002385 0.002919 0.003602 0.004560 0.005912 0.007822 0.010868
2025-12-07 0.002309 0.002841 0.003526 0.004496 0.005881 0.007864 0.011082
2025-12-14 0.002264 0.002803 0.003502 0.004503 0.005950 0.008055 0.011540
2025-12-21 0.002168 0.002694 0.003378 0.004366 0.005803 0.007915 0.011454
2025-12-28 0.002127 0.002656 0.003351 0.004362 0.005853 0.008074 0.011866
2026-01-04 0.002114 0.002656 0.003375 0.004433 0.006014 0.008410 0.012596
2026-01-11 0.002065 0.002606 0.003329 0.004400 0.006016 0.008497 0.012906
2026-01-18 0.002022 0.002563 0.003290 0.004376 0.006031 0.008604 0.013253
2026-01-25 0.001979 0.002518 0.003247 0.004344 0.006033 0.008689 0.013567
2026-02-01 0.001970 0.002521 0.003271 0.004413 0.006194 0.009040 0.014389